I think that Q2 will go down as the quarter that split the market.
I think that Q2 will go down as the quarter that split the market. Read More »
T-Bills
“You can’t always get what you want, but if you try, sometimes…”
80% of the Perry Capital Portfolio holds liquid and guaranteed-return investments with interest rates constantly
adjusting to the higher rate structure that is coming.
“You can’t always get what you want, but if you try, sometimes…” Read More »
The Fed has paused its interest rate hiking campaign…
“It’s the strike, it’s government shutdown, resumption of student loan payments, higher long-term rates, oil
price shock,” said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Wednesday, responding to a question about external
factors that supported the Fed’s decision not to hike rates.
The Fed has paused its interest rate hiking campaign… Read More »
“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent…”
The allocation within my 10% position in the S&P 500 is changing. When finished, I will be overweight Energy,
Defense, and Technology and underweight the REIT, Telecommunication, Healthcare, and Financial sectors.
“I think it’s absolutely clear that the fiscal path we are on is not sustainable…”
80% of the Perry Capital Portfolio holds liquid and guaranteed-return investments with interest rates constantly
adjusting to the higher rate structure that is coming.
“I think it’s absolutely clear that the fiscal path we are on is not sustainable…” Read More »
“Independence Day – and all I remember was a midnight rainbow that fell…”
RIP to a fellow ‘Floridian,’ musician, and capitalisCc genius who, like his “Uncle Warren,” showed in words and
deeds that it’s not about the money.
“Independence Day – and all I remember was a midnight rainbow that fell…” Read More »
“When the government assumes all the risk, it’s the currency that is at risk.”
77.25% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.10% with principal guaranteed. As you know by now, I sold my
short 25% Treasury positions
“When the government assumes all the risk, it’s the currency that is at risk.” Read More »
“Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don’t expect it from cheap people.”
77.25% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.11% with principal guaranteed. I sold my short 25% Treasury
positions
“Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don’t expect it from cheap people.” Read More »
“History repeats itself, but in such cunning disguise that we never detect the resemblance…”
77.25% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.09% with principal guaranteed. I sold my short 25% Treasury
positions
exposure.
“We have met the enemy and he is us.”
60% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.09% with principal guaranteed. I sold my short 25% Treasury
positions
lower.
“The space between the tears we cry is the laughter – keeps us coming back for more.”
Everything I own is up in 2023. But I’m not that good. Most asset classes are up. This tells me there is too much
money around. The Fed should know this and hike.
“The space between the tears we cry is the laughter – keeps us coming back for more.” Read More »
“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many…”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight in the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation, higher funding rates, and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.
“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many…” Read More »
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate…”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight in the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from
the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor.
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate…” Read More »
“The problem with leverage is that you have to pay it back.”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from
the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor. I must say, though, that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
performance y-t-d is impressive. Perhaps A.I. is a paradigm shift as impactful as the internet.
“The problem with leverage is that you have to pay it back.” Read More »
“Politicians are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle…”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor.
“Politicians are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle…” Read More »
“If not for you, my sky would fall. Rain would gather, too. Without your love…”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not
discounting for persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.
“If not for you, my sky would fall. Rain would gather, too. Without your love…” Read More »
“To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not
discounting for persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.
“To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.” Read More »
“You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market.
“You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.” Read More »
“The sun, with all those planets revolving around it and dependent on it, can still…”
30% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in the Money Market
of the portfolio is in T-Bills (4 of them), with an average yield of 4.91%.
“The sun, with all those planets revolving around it and dependent on it, can still…” Read More »
“If someone tells you that you are the smartest person in the room…”
5% of my T-Bill exposure matured. My proceeds were a tiny portion of the $508b that migrated to money
market funds in the first quarter. The “Liquid” portfolio position remains at 50%.
“If someone tells you that you are the smartest person in the room…” Read More »
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while…”
I bought more bonds in the portfolio. Finally, the future is less murky. Recession odds have increased dramatically.
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while…” Read More »
“Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin. It does not work.”
I remain 75% in liquid cash investments, which have a guaranteed yield to maturity of 4.625%. Given recent
events, and the expectation of forthcoming stimulus, volatility remains extremely elevated, sentiment is
schizophrenic, and investors are fearful.
“Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin. It does not work.” Read More »
“What’s the deal with bank runs? I mean, why are they called bank runs?”
I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Given recent events, things may get even crazier before they calm down. Monday’s opening and the rest of
next week will be telling. As I cautioned last week, be patient and remain defensive; I suspect that most assets
you might be interested in buying will be available at lower prices.
“What’s the deal with bank runs? I mean, why are they called bank runs?” Read More »
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover…”
Be patient and remain defensive. I suspect that most assets you might be interested in buying will be available
at lower prices.
“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…”
I am not fighting the Fed and expect funding rates to rise higher than the markets expect and for them to stay
higher for a longer period than the market expects. I also recognize that liquidity and momentum models may still
encourage large and sophisticated derivative trading which can propel risk assets higher.
“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…” Read More »
“The Future has many names. For the weak it is unattainable. For the fearful…”
The Perry Capital Portfolio remains unchanged (75% cash.) The discipline to maintain a cash position
throughout the year was not easy but proved fortuitous. Those who correctly expected a hawkish Fed beat the market in 2022. Those who did not, underperformed. It will be more complicated in 2023.
“The Future has many names. For the weak it is unattainable. For the fearful…” Read More »
