Global macro geo-political and economic factors will remain the most significant factors for investors in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
As the Middle East conflagration intensifies, investors are losing confidence… Read More »
Interest rates have been rising not just because of inflation but because of accelerating credit risk. The U.S. Government has gotten itself into a position where it is forced to borrow in a higher rate environment. This is tremendously problematic because, at some point, rates will rise far enough that investors will be forced to reduce their U.S. equity holdings. The potential destruction of investor wealth may be significant enough to force the Fed to abandon its inflation fight. The Fed will stop its tightening campaign when the stock market tells it to. That moment may even arrive more quickly than we can imagine, but believe me, it’s out there.
Global macro geo-political and economic factors will remain the most significant factors for investors in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
Global macro geo-political and economic factors will remain the most significant factors for investors in the days, weeks, and months ahead. A broader and far more destructive armed conflict and escalated military engagement are, by far, the most significant issues confronting investor portfolios.
Wars are inflationary. Now we have two of them. Deglobalization, which is accelerating, will also result in higher prices. Bond investors are increasingly and rightfully vigilant. They demand a higher risk premium for the deteriorating financial state of the U.S. Government.
“If some ‘expert’ were to come up with even the most meager ‘proof’ that…” Read More »
War returns to the Middle East as Israel prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza. Investors’ “Flight to Safety” trades dominated market action last week. That trend will continue.
War returns to the Middle East as Israel prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza. Read More »
• Investors’ “Flight to Safety” trades dominated market action last week. That trend will continue. The most obvious shift in investor sentiment was the screeching halt to the trend of higher rates in the U.S. Treasury market. 10y Treasury yields reversed their ascent. Rates fell from almost 5% to this morning’s current level of 4.60%. Gold
Inflation is rising because government spending is rising, exacerbating an already severely imbalanced labor market. The demand for labor enforces salary bargaining power, so wages are rising; this is the source of structural inflation, which is becoming systemically embedded into the economy.
Bond yields are rising because Supply is rising… and Demand is falling. Read More »
Bond yields are rising because Supply is rising… and Demand is falling. Bond investors demand more of a premium due to a much higher risk in owning U.S. Government debt. Indebtedness, the leverage on it, and deficit spending are overwhelming the capacity of bond portfolio managers to take on additional risk…