“Curiosity is, in great and generous minds, the first passion and the last.”
“Curiosity is, in great and generous minds, the first passion and the last.” Read More »
Federal Reserve
“Neither a state nor a bank ever [has] had the unrestricted power of issuing paper money without abusing that power.”
Stocks rallied smartly last week. The Dow was up 2.6%, The S&P 500 rallied 4.0%, and the Nasdaq jumped 6.0%.
Growth stocks outpaced value shares by a wide margin. The big-cap mega-scalers led the rally, and the poster child for the AI revolution was the clear winner as
Don’t get too excited, though; the broad market (S&P 500) remains within its range since April. The S&P 500 is marginally
(-0.50%) below, the Nasdaq is -5% below, and the Dow is -17.56% below all-time highs. Markets are skittish and fearful of change.
“All great changes are preceded by chaos.”
The Fed seems destined to cut interest rates on September 18th. Chairman Powell and his colleagues have stopped talking about inflation and pivoted towards unemployment. What a shock.
The narrative surrounding the latest Powell pivot is squarely focused on what the Fed believes are the weakening prospects for the U.S. economy, with a clear focus on the full-employment component of their dual mandate. Many agree. Many do not.
Perry Capital anticipates an economy that will continue to expand — supported by healthy consumer spending, bolstered by a labor force that continues to grow and which has never been larger, and by a high level of household income, which has never been greater. This, along with robust government support in select portions of the economy, leads us to believe that growth, employment, and inflation pressure will all continue to surprise to the upside.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.”
Market sentiment has taken a significant hit. The astonishing IT failure, regarded by many as the worst ever, has severely dented investor bullishness. It is especially concerning and even more shocking to investors than the political drama we are witnessing. The vulnerability we’re all feeling about our extreme reliance on technology might actually be even worse than originally believed because it’s unclear whether our technology systems can do anything to sufficiently remedy the situation and prevent future occurrences.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.” Read More »
“If you do not know what port you sail to, no wind is favorable.”
The S&P 500 touched yet another all-time high Friday at $5,505. It was up +0.6% on the week. The NASDAQ also hit another all-time high ($17,936) but could not break the big round number of $18,000 in two attempts. It was flat on the week. Friday was “Triple Witching” Options expiration – over $5t in options expired.
“If you do not know what port you sail to, no wind is favorable.” Read More »
“There is an inevitable divergence, attributed to the imperfections of the human mind, between the world as it is and the world as men perceive it.”
Stimulus remains ample, and Mr. Powell was more dovish than even the most strident risk asset bulls anticipated. Government activism in the economy and capital market and economy remain and are accelerating.
The performance of the U.S. equity and credit markets is excellent, and they are aggressively testing the Fed, which doesn’t see the threat unless, of course, they see something that we don’t. Three cuts are still expected in 2024. Stocks should remain encouraged but for how long?
“In this new global environment, policymakers, even those previously in the ‘lower forever’ camp…”
Interest rates drive everything, and they are as volatile and directionally uncertain as they’ve ever been. So are the global macroeconomics driving them. Global fund managers are required to make bets on outcomes for stocks, currencies, and commodities based on the cost of money. If perspectives on rates are so dispersed, how can we judge the value of the things that are driven by them?
“It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance…”
Key economic reports in the upcoming week are various and reasonably important, but Friday’s employment report is the only one that really matters. The Fed’s game plan was to raise interest rates enough to reduce the imbalance in the labor market. But the tightening is really quite marginal compared to the continued stimulus, and it is that stimulus that has been supportive of higher equity valuations and growth. I think the stock market sees this. What it fails to see — for now — is that the stimulus is supporting higher prices.
Markets need to figure out a normalized level of interest rates appropriate to this volatile new era …
Markets need to figure out a normalized level of interest rates appropriate to this volatile new era of De-globalization, rising military engagement, heightened Geopolitical tensions, excessive indebtedness, and the irrational rise in deficit spending.
“There’s no money. There’s no money. If we don’t make a fiscal adjustment, we’re headed for hyperinflation…”
Markets need to figure out a normalized level of interest rates appropriate to this volatile new era of De-globalization, rising military engagement, heightened Geopolitical tensions, excessive indebtedness, and the irrational rise in deficit spending.
Inflation is rising because government spending is rising…
Inflation is rising because government spending is rising, exacerbating an already severely imbalanced labor market. The demand for labor enforces salary bargaining power, so wages are rising; this is the source of structural inflation, which is becoming systemically embedded into the economy.
Inflation is rising because government spending is rising… Read More »
“You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market.
“You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.” Read More »
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover…”
Be patient and remain defensive. I suspect that most assets you might be interested in buying will be available
at lower prices.
“The greater the obstacle, the greater the glory in overcoming it.”
I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Volatility is extreme, risk is high rewards are low. Pick your spots. This is not one of them.
“The greater the obstacle, the greater the glory in overcoming it.” Read More »
