Federal Reserve Rate Policy

“The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.”

Last week was another riveting week in U.S. financial markets. The Nasdaq reached new all-time highs, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains for the S&P 500, which has increased in 16 of the past 18 weeks – a 25% rise in four months. During the same period, the Magnificent Seven (Mag7) stocks surged by 40%, Nvidia by 110%, and Bitcoin by 150%, with a notable 21% increase in just the last week. Bitcoin emerged as the standout performer.

“The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.” Read More »

If getting Inflation to 2% is truly the Fed’s objective, then why in the world would it cut in 2024?

Fed Watch is on. No rate cut this week — for sure — and traders are not betting on one in March either, but Powell will probably keep the door open so that stocks and bonds do not face a drawdown.
• That means the first possibility of a cut will not present itself until May 1st.
• The Employment report comes out Friday, and earnings reports from some of the most important companies will filter in all week.
• Considering where we are with respect to valuations, the slightest negative surprise in any of the data could have outsized effects on markets.

If getting Inflation to 2% is truly the Fed’s objective, then why in the world would it cut in 2024? Read More »