Unlimited public welfare spending will destroy the country if it is not stopped. The exorbitant – and impossible to repay – government debt purchased by the current administration with fiat money to fund it will ultimately crush all investments. This is why Gold (and increasingly, Silver) and crypto are in the midst of rampaging bull markets.
Being an economic thinker rather than a political one, I will say that all these elections seem to have one thing in common—voters are rejecting the status quo of imposed statism. They are rejecting the policies of excessive indebtedness and deficit sending. Voters know first-hand that slow growth and higher prices are pushing them further and further behind in their quality of life. The famous “misery index” is rising everywhere from Beijing to Tehran, Moscow to Paris, Berlin to London, and Washington. Most major countries across the world are in danger of debt death spirals. Voters everywhere know government bureaucrats are asking them to sacrifice more than they can bear. They want change.
Perry Capital is positioned for slower growth and higher inflation into the Summer. The economy continues to be supported by above-trend consumer spending from asset owners and way-above-trend increases in government spending. The Fed, or the Treasury Department, does not need to stimulate the economy, but it may do so to bolster the present administration’s re-election.
“I didn’t have time to write a short letter report, so I wrote a long one instead.” Read More »
In its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed indicated that they may deliver three interest rate cuts this year as long as — In Powell’s words — “Inflation continues its “bumpy” trend towards the target (2%.)” Bumpy? That sounds generous at best and incredibly disingenuous at worst, especially given that Supercore inflation is rising at 5.8%. Most market participants believe that we’re on track for 3 rate cuts starting in June, thus the continuously impressive risk asset performance.
“Perhaps too much of everything is as bad as too little.” Read More »
Stagflation reigns. Slow growth (2.5%) with rising inflation (4%) — driven by the rising cost of labor (+5%) — is the very definition of a stagflating economy. This forecast remains the dominant theme for the economy, markets, and investors. Stagflation has been the Perry International Capital Partners (PICP) forecast for two years, and we continue to be more worried about rising inflation than we are about slower growth.
“I thought by now you’d realize, there ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes.” Read More »
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not
discounting for persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.
“To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.” Read More »
