Wall Street

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

The economy is growing slowly and inflating quickly, which presents significant challenges to the economy, to unprofitable and indebted sectors of the market, and eventually to the government – but not at least until the election.
Heightened uncertainty, rising volatility, and rising indebtedness exert tremendous financial stress on broader portions of the economy. The government won’t let it break until after the election.
Perry Capital has anticipated rising inflation, which is helping corporate profitability, but, to date, has not resulted in higher yields –– although credit spreads are beginning to widen in weaker credits. Expect more.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” Read More »

“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many…”

75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight in the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation, higher funding rates, and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.

“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many…” Read More »

“The problem with leverage is that you have to pay it back.”

75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from
the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor. I must say, though, that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
performance y-t-d is impressive. Perhaps A.I. is a paradigm shift as impactful as the internet.

“The problem with leverage is that you have to pay it back.” Read More »

“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.”

I thought very hard about increasing exposure to Long Treasuries and the S&P 500 a month ago; I decided
not to. My decision was based on my forecast—earlier this year—of a 3.5% yield. We spiked from that level
up to 4.33% and then right back down, which I did not expect. Volatility quite elevated. Therefore, my cash
position continues to migrate toward Treasury Bills. Consequently, I must ask… what is wrong with a
guaranteed return of 4% until the dust settles and volatility settles down. Not much, in my opinion!

“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.” Read More »