I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Given recent events, things may get even crazier before they calm down. Monday’s opening and the rest of
next week will be telling. As I cautioned last week, be patient and remain defensive; I suspect that most assets
you might be interested in buying will be available at lower prices.
“What’s the deal with bank runs? I mean, why are they called bank runs?” Read More »
I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Volatility is extreme, risk is high rewards are low. Pick your spots. This is not one of them.
“The greater the obstacle, the greater the glory in overcoming it.” Read More »
I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Play defense. Be patient.
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important…” Read More »
I am not fighting the Fed and expect funding rates to rise higher than the markets expect and for them to stay
higher for a longer period than the market expects. I also recognize that liquidity and momentum models may still
encourage large and sophisticated derivative trading which can propel risk assets higher.
“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…” Read More »
50% of the Perry Capital portfolio is in the money market. The T-Bill position remains at 25% of portfolio assets.
Long Treasuries
and Bitcoin. Everything seems expensive.
“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective…” Read More »
The Perry Capital Portfolio remains unchanged (75% cash.) 50% of the portfolio is in the money market. The
T-Bill position remains at 25% of portfolio assets. Long Treasuries
S&P 500 is also a 10% position. So far, everything is up. My small Silver and Bitcoin positions have been good
performers for the start of the year. Lower long-term funding rates are the key to the whole puzzle. We’ll
know more about that on February 1st.
I thought very hard about increasing exposure to Long Treasuries and the S&P 500 a month ago; I decided
not to. My decision was based on my forecast—earlier this year—of a 3.5% yield. We spiked from that level
up to 4.33% and then right back down, which I did not expect. Volatility quite elevated. Therefore, my cash
position continues to migrate toward Treasury Bills. Consequently, I must ask… what is wrong with a
guaranteed return of 4% until the dust settles and volatility settles down. Not much, in my opinion!
“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.” Read More »
The most significant risk facing investors is the Fed’s march towards a restrictive monetary policy.
Indeed, there are others: the invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, the crypto fallout, and even the
nature of free speech in America as encapsulated in the Twitter saga. All make top headlines.
“Often the difference between a successful person and a failure is not one…” Read More »
The good news is that the Qatari government did the world a favor by banning Budweiser from World Cup
soccer venues. It’s a dreadful beer. The U.S beer industry dodged a bullet.