NFP

“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…”

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I am not fighting the Fed and expect funding rates to rise higher than the markets expect and for them to stay
higher for a longer period than the market expects. I also recognize that liquidity and momentum models may still
encourage large and sophisticated derivative trading which can propel risk assets higher.

“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…” Read More »

“What comes next is weak economies and tough policy choices.”

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The battle at hand is to reduce inflation. The Fed has been aggressively raising Interest rates while
reducing its balance sheet by $95bn/month, liquidity is being drained from both the financial system and
the economy, and market volatility is rising. The ramifications will be significant. Therefore, I remain
defensive and have maintained the status quo in my portfolio.

“What comes next is weak economies and tough policy choices.” Read More »