MSCI Global equity index – Perry International Capital Partners

“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”

I have said for almost a year that there will be no Fed cuts in 2024. I stand by that forecast for one simple reason: “Immaculate Disinflation” is over. The U.S. economy is inflating, and it has been for a year. The structural and systemic price increases are not only permanent but accelerating. The twin cancers of elevated and rising inflation have metastasized and imperiled the health of the U.S. economy.

“I thought by now you’d realize, there ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes.”

Newsletter / perrycap

Stagflation reigns. Slow growth (2.5%) with rising inflation (4%) — driven by the rising cost of labor (+5%) — is the very definition of a stagflating economy. This forecast remains the dominant theme for the economy, markets, and investors. Stagflation has been the Perry International Capital Partners (PICP) forecast for two years, and we continue to be more worried about rising inflation than we are about slower growth.

“I thought by now you’d realize, there ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes.” Read More »