Long Treasuries

Men rise to great fortune “more through fraud than through force.”

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Valuations are extreme, liquidity is falling, optimism is at record levels, and speculators are longer than they have been all year. The icing on the cake is that the market thinks there will be 6 Fed rate cuts this year. Policymakers at the Fed, most of whom are non-voters, think there will be 3. I think there will be none. The market is ahead of itself.

Men rise to great fortune “more through fraud than through force.” Read More »

“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many…”

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75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight in the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation, higher funding rates, and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.

“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many…” Read More »

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate…”

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75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight in the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from
the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor.

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate…” Read More »

“The problem with leverage is that you have to pay it back.”

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75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from
the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor. I must say, though, that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
performance y-t-d is impressive. Perhaps A.I. is a paradigm shift as impactful as the internet.

“The problem with leverage is that you have to pay it back.” Read More »

“If not for you, my sky would fall. Rain would gather, too. Without your love…”

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75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not
discounting for persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.

“If not for you, my sky would fall. Rain would gather, too. Without your love…” Read More »

“What’s the deal with bank runs? I mean, why are they called bank runs?”

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I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Given recent events, things may get even crazier before they calm down. Monday’s opening and the rest of
next week will be telling. As I cautioned last week, be patient and remain defensive; I suspect that most assets
you might be interested in buying will be available at lower prices.

“What’s the deal with bank runs? I mean, why are they called bank runs?” Read More »