Housing starts – Perry International Capital Partners

“Times and conditions change so rapidly that we must keep our aim constantly focused on the future”

Since January 2021, government measures of core inflation are up 18%-19% if food, energy, and shelter are excluded. However, Food prices are up 25%, Energy prices are up 32%, and Shelter costs are up 22%. Perhaps more critically, Services Inflation, which was up +4.7% in the last twelve months, is up close to 50% over the same time period. Maybe prices for the items that are stripped out of Headline Inflation statistics (i.e., necessities) will fall if we have rising unemployment (and a recession.) But, for now, rising service prices are holding up progress on inflation.

“Times and conditions change so rapidly that we must keep our aim constantly focused on the future” Read More »

“Perhaps too much of everything is as bad as too little.”

In its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed indicated that they may deliver three interest rate cuts this year as long as — In Powell’s words — “Inflation continues its “bumpy” trend towards the target (2%.)” Bumpy? That sounds generous at best and incredibly disingenuous at worst, especially given that Supercore inflation is rising at 5.8%. Most market participants believe that we’re on track for 3 rate cuts starting in June, thus the continuously impressive risk asset performance.