Government policy

“If you do not know what port you sail to, no wind is favorable.”

The S&P 500 touched yet another all-time high Friday at $5,505. It was up +0.6% on the week. The NASDAQ also hit another all-time high ($17,936) but could not break the big round number of $18,000 in two attempts. It was flat on the week. Friday was “Triple Witching” Options expiration – over $5t in options expired. and options were an enormous percentage of expired option contracts and may have contributed to the 10% hit on the shares of .

“If you do not know what port you sail to, no wind is favorable.” Read More »

“Any great power that spends more on debt service than on defense will not stay great for long.”

Investors pushed U.S. Equities to all-time highs last week. This is an extraordinary momentum rally that appears to be attracting increasing amounts of investor capital in a sign that the economy can keep its momentum up to, and perhaps beyond, the election. This is a logical assumption based on the realization that the U.S. government is addicted to spending (there is no mention of cutting it by either party.) The rising cost of debt service seems almost an afterthought, and if the debt burden gets high enough to slow the economy, the Fed will increase stimulus. Higher bond yields do not appear to be part of any in-depth analysis. Except mine.

“Any great power that spends more on debt service than on defense will not stay great for long.” Read More »