77.25% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.11% with principal guaranteed. I sold my short 25% Treasury
positions
“Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don’t expect it from cheap people.” Read More »
Markets are closed for the next couple of days, and I depart for Europe on the 5th. My presentation package for
European investors will be done before I leave. This is a quick 14-Point message and the charts package, which
will be part of the Weekly in 2 days. to enjoy through the long weekend.
Happy Canada Day to the Canadians… and happy July 4th to the Americans! Read More »
60% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.09% with principal guaranteed. I sold my short 25% Treasury
positions
lower.
Everything I own is up in 2023. But I’m not that good. Most asset classes are up. This tells me there is too much
money around. The Fed should know this and hike.
“The space between the tears we cry is the laughter – keeps us coming back for more.” Read More »
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight in the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from
the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor.
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate…” Read More »
I thought very hard about increasing exposure to Long Treasuries and the S&P 500 a month ago; I decided
not to. My decision was based on my forecast—earlier this year—of a 3.5% yield. We spiked from that level
up to 4.33% and then right back down, which I did not expect. Volatility quite elevated. Therefore, my cash
position continues to migrate toward Treasury Bills. Consequently, I must ask… what is wrong with a
guaranteed return of 4% until the dust settles and volatility settles down. Not much, in my opinion!
“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.” Read More »
The most significant risk facing investors is the Fed’s march towards a restrictive monetary policy.
Indeed, there are others: the invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, the crypto fallout, and even the
nature of free speech in America as encapsulated in the Twitter saga. All make top headlines.
“Often the difference between a successful person and a failure is not one…” Read More »
The battle at hand is to reduce inflation. The Fed has been aggressively raising Interest rates while
reducing its balance sheet by $95bn/month, liquidity is being drained from both the financial system and
the economy, and market volatility is rising. The ramifications will be significant. Therefore, I remain
defensive and have maintained the status quo in my portfolio.
“What comes next is weak economies and tough policy choices.” Read More »